Political Outcomes of the Trilateral Statement

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  • 30 November, 2020
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After the 44-day war, a declaration of peace was signed despite the absence of the President of the Republic of Armenia in a video conference. This statement is probably a defeat for Armenia. The most controversial issue arose in paragraph 4. It should be noted that this is a declaration of peace, not a "peace agreement". For this reason, although the battle on the front ended, the war in the diplomatic arena did not end. Although the strong and strong position of the Azerbaijani side is defended in the diplomatic arena, there is a bitter reality in the world that power is a force to be reckoned with. We see how effective realism is in these relations as well. Four resolutions in favor of the Azerbaijani side and decisions made by many other international organizations did not materialize without the use of force. Here we see the victory of realism again. In my opinion, Russia's main ally lately is Azerbaijan. Realizing that Armenia's use as a kind of infantry was detrimental, Russia realized that it needed an ally in the region.

The statement signed on November 10 was as follows:

“Statement by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the President of the Russian Federation

We declare the following: President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin:

1. On November 10, 2020, from 00.00 Moscow time, a complete ceasefire and all military operations in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone will be announced. From now on, the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, which will be called the Parties, will remain in their current positions.

2. Until November 20, 2020, Aghdam region is returned to the Republic of Azerbaijan.

3. A peacekeeping contingent consisting of 1,960 firefighters, 90 armored vehicles, 380 vehicles and special equipment of the Russian Federation is stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh along the line of contact and the Lachin corridor.

4. The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. The period of stay of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years, and 6 months prior to the expiration of the period, the period shall be automatically extended for another 5 years unless either Party expresses its intention to terminate this provision.

5. A peacekeeping center for ceasefire control shall be established in order to increase the effectiveness of monitoring the compliance of the conflicting parties with the agreements.

6. The Republic of Armenia shall return the Kalbajar region to the Republic of Azerbaijan by November 15, 2020, and the Lachin region by December 1, 2020. The Lachin corridor (5 km wide), which will provide links between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia and will not touch the city of Shusha, remains under the control of the Russian peacekeeping contingent. According to the agreement, a plan for the construction of a new route on the Lachin corridor, which will provide communication between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia for the next three years, will be determined, and thus the future relocation of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to protect this route. The Republic of Azerbaijan guarantees safety for the movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions along the Lachin corridor.

7. Internally displaced persons and refugees shall return to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas under the supervision of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

8. The exchange of prisoners of war, hostages and other detainees, as well as bodies, shall be carried out.

9. All economic and transport links in the region are being restored. The Republic of Armenia guarantees the security of transport links between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in order to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Transport control is exercised by the border service of the Federal Security Service of Russia. By agreement of the parties, the construction of new transport communications connecting the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and the western regions of Azerbaijan will be provided.

President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, President of the Russian Federation.

Source: https://president.az/articles/45924

Article 4 raised the question for many people as to whether Russian troops would leave the region when needed. The answer to this question is legally in Azerbaijan's favor, as the statement states that "the period of stay of the Russian peacekeeping contingent is 5 years and is automatically extended for another 5 years unless either Party expresses its intention to terminate this provision 6 months before expiration." part is the main argument. That is, if the Azerbaijani side protests 4 years and 6 months ago, according to the law, Russian military units must withdraw from the region. The second issue here is the creation of a corridor connecting the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and Azerbaijan. We conclude that the corridor with Nakhchivan will be maintained in case of withdrawal of Russian troops from Karabakh, but it should be noted that this is based on the statement.

One of the main forces that will strengthen Azerbaijan's position in the region is the bringing of Turkish troops to Karabakh. Although Lavrov said in his speeches that the Turkish military will only be in the centre of control, the Azerbaijani side insists on this issue, because this event is very important for us in terms of stability, confidence and security. Azerbaijan's position is very clear, but, of course, the influence of real actors cannot be hidden. Brother Turkey has given us endless support during the Second Karabakh War.

In terms of political messages, I think the absence of the Russian flag in Lavrov's meeting with Pashinyan is a very big message. At the same time, the lack of attention paid to the meeting room and the condition of the parquet show the attitude of the Pashinyan government to Russia. These two messages are very important in terms of political messages. A few days ago, I said that Russia no longer needs Armenia on foot. The world is already built on economic interests, and a small island state developed here (Singapore) occupies an important position among many countries in the world, and this position is positive for Azerbaijan in the Caucasus. The economic power of Azerbaijan and Armenia cannot be compared. In addition to its own region, Azerbaijan is important for the European region and many more. An economic comparison may be a summary of this phenomenon. Azerbaijan's GDP is $ 48.05 billion (1). The GDP of Armenia ($ 13.67 billion (3)) and Georgia ($ 17.74 billion (2)) is $ 31.41 billion. In other words, the GDP of the other two Caucasus states lags behind Azerbaijan. This is just an example of which state in the region wants to choose an ally. At the same time, Azerbaijan's multicultural values ​​are an example for the world. Azerbaijan's stable economy after the global oil crisis in 2014 also supports these views.

States that used Armenians for their own interests in the Caucasus centuries ago now see that these interests do not work. That is, if they want to continue their long-term existence, Azerbaijan will contribute to them more than Armenia and Georgia. With these realities, Azerbaijan will shine like the sun in the Caucasus, unless it is an extraordinary event.

Source:

  1. https://tradingeconomics.com/Azerbaijan/gdp
  2. https://tradingeconomics.com/georgia/gdp
  3. https://tradingeconomics.com/Armenia/gdp
  4. https://president.az/articles/45924

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