Punhan Abdurahmanzade, a student of international relations at Baku State University examines the Political Outcomes of the Second Karabakh War Resolution of the French Parliament.

Political Results of Second Karabakh War Resolution of France Parliament

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the several conflicts that emerged after collapse of Soviet Union. Since 1988, Armenia started illegal territorial claims against Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. In 1989 Azerbaijan declared sovereignty and in 1991 declared independence. After declaration of independence of Azerbaijan, Armenia started attacks against Azerbaijan and first Karabakh War started. First Karabakh War lasted until 1994 and resulted with illegal occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven neighbor regions by Armenia, more than 1 million refugees and IDPs and loss of many lives. There are four resolutions of UN (822,853,874,884) that support the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and stated liberation of occupied territories, and back of refugees and IDPs. But these resolutions never implemented because these resolutions didn’t have any sanctions to occupying forces. Although there is ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, this agreement violated many times by Armenia. In April 2016, one of this violation which led by Armenian forces, resulted with 4 days lasted April War. As a result of this War some heights in Tartar region of Azerbaijan, Lala Tapa height and Cocuqmercanli village of Jabrail region of Azerbaijan have been liberated from occupation. This was first severe fight between Armenia and Azerbaijan after signing of 1994 Ceasefire agreement. Unfortunately, it was not end, Armenia continue its ceasefire violations even after April defeat. In July 2020 Armenia started new attack against Azerbaijan over Tovuz region of Azerbaijan. This attack has been prevented by Azerbaijan and no major changes happened but led to the straining of situation.

On 27th September 2020 Armenia started new attacks against Azerbaijan and this attack ultimately ended with Second Karabakh War. Second Karabakh War lasted 44 days and resulted with military capitulation of Armenia and liberation of all occupied territories of Azerbaijan. On 10HTh November 2020 Capitulation statement signed between Armenia-Prime Minster Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijan-President Ilham Aliyev and Russia-President Vladimir Putin as a mediator. This capitulation statement led to the end of occupation of internationally recognized territories of Azerbaijan. Within this capitulation statement Nagorno-Karabakh conflict officially ended and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan restored.

Political sides of Conflict.

After starting of conflict, OSCE started to mediation for peacefully regulation of conflict and Minsk Group was established. There are three co-chairs of Minsk Group – France, USA and Russia. I wanted to use sentences of President of Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev for understanding work of Minsk Group. I.Aliyev: “Minsk group working more than 28 years for peaceful regulation of conflict but even one sm2 of occupied territories liberated occupation. We don’t have patience for waiting one more 30 years.” Even co-chairs of Minsk Group stated at the end of all meetings that- There is not any military regulation of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Unfortunately, this conflict resolved mainly within military way and then political way. Although there is mandate of Minsk group, it never used its mandate for solving this conflict. In the end, Minsk group was left out of the conflict resolution. This conflict resolved just with mediation of Russia. It was the big blow to the prestige of USA and France because although they are co-chairs of the Minsk Group neither resolved the conflict nor prevented the re-escalation of the conflict. Also, within resolution of this conflict Russia showed the whole world, only Russia can resolve the conflicts of former Soviet Union members.

Turkey was supporting Azerbaijan in this conflict in political sphere and President of Turkey R.T.Erdogan stated: “If other parties get involved this conflict, Turkey will support Azerbaijan in the military sphere.” At the moment involved parties agreed about creation of Monitoring center for control the ceasefire and this center will locate in the Aghdam region of Azerbaijan with the joint management of Turkey and Russia. Within this actions Turkey made a show of force in the world.

After all, within pressure of Armenian lobby France Parliament adopts a resolution for ignite of this conflict again. That resolution stated immediately recognition of Artsakh that illegally established within territories of Azerbaijan on 10th December 1991 with support of Armenia. This resolution was not only violation of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan also violation of International Law. This resolution was another big blow to the prestige of France. I wanted to use President of Turkey R.T.Erdogan’s words about this resolution: “Within this resolution France showed that France was the part of conflict not solution.” This situation emerged two big questions: 1) why did France adopt this type of unjust resolution? 2) What will be result of this resolution for Azerbaijan?

1. Why did France adopt this type of unjust resolution?

There are several reasons of this action. Firstly, as a co-chair of Minsk Group France was left out of conflict resolution, it is big blow to the prestige and hegemony of France. Secondly, although main duty of France as mediator was prevention of re-escalation but this conflict resolved mainly within military way and France could not prevent this. Thirdly, there are so powerful Armenian lobby in the France and this lobby have a big influence to adoption of the resolution. Fourthly, there are clash of interests between Russia and France. The conflict resolved with mediation of Russia, and France could not do anything about this. Fifthly, France doesn’t want strengthening of the position of Turkey. Resolving of the conflict and creation of Monitoring Center within joint management of Turkey and Russia increase the hegemony of Turkey in Caucasus region also will strengthen the position of Turkey in the international arena.

1. What will be result of this resolution for Azerbaijan?

For understanding results of the resolution firstly we have to know the power of French Parliament. In other word we have to know place of France Parliament in the foreign policy making process.

The power of Parliament has been limited by 37th article of constitution. Especially in foreign policy matters. It has been reduced in order to rationalize and stabilize the governmental life. The Parliament has indeed to authorize the ratification or the approval of international agreements, but in some areas only – in particular, the treaties establishing military alliances are not concerned. And the rights of the Parliament in the discussion of the texts of the international agreements are very restricted: it can only adopt or reject the text, without any modification or interpretation. In fact, the parliamentarian discussions about international agreements are frequently symbolic, and, under the Fifth Republic, no one was ever rejected by the Parliament.

As a conclusion, the resolution of French parliament does not have any dramatic results for Azerbaijan. Even ambassador of France in Azerbaijan has written in his official Twitter account, which stated: France recognize the independence of its parliament but not illegal Artsakh Republic. But it is fact that this resolution is an official document and will strengthen the position of illegal Artsakh Republic.

Political results of Second Karabakh War:

1. Restoration of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan;
2. Russia showed its hegemony in the post-Soviet region to the whole world;
3. Turkey increase its hegemony in South Caucasus
4. Turkey strengthened its position in the international arena
5. Minsk group showed its weakness and was kept out of the conflict resolution.